Courses/Forecasting, Modeling, and Shaping AI Futures

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Forecasting, Modeling, and Shaping AI Futures

Not sure whether you’re actually moving the needle on AI takeover risk? Predicting the future is hard, but there are things you can do to increase your chances of making a difference. In this course, you build an explicit model of how AI goes and find where your actions actually change the trajectory.

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About this course

The people who predicted the current AI wave didn’t get lucky. They had explicit models of the future. You’ll work through the readings the field’s sharpest forecasters actually use, test their models against your group in small breakout discussions, and build your own. Lens Coach, your AI tutor, sits alongside the text whenever you want to dig deeper or ask the questions you’d hesitate to ask a person.

What you’ll walk away with

An explicit model of the future

Structured, defensible, and yours, not borrowed takes.

Sharper forecasting skills

Forecast timelines and takeoff speeds: when, and how quickly, powerful AIs will arrive.

A read on the strategic landscape

The strategies for preventing AI takeover, and what the labs' and governments' plans actually say.

A peer network in AI safety

People excited about the same questions, and potential future collaborators.

A certificate you can verify

With a public link for your LinkedIn.

A clear next step

A concrete answer to "what do I do on Monday", matched to your skills and situation.

This course is for you, if:

PROFESSIONAL

You work in AI Safety full-time

Know which part of your work matters most.

FORECASTER

You want calibration, not vibes

Explicit, testable models, not hot takes.

GRADUATE

You've done an intro course

Your step before picking a track.

FELLOW

You're doing a fellowship

Strategic takes fellowships don't teach.

What you’ll explore

6 UNITS · ~5H

01

Timelines and takeoff

How fast do AI capabilities grow, and what would tell us we're wrong? The models behind short and long timelines, and what takeoff speed changes about everything else.

02

How experts model the future

The forecasting toolkit behind the field's best predictions: scenario writing, base rates, trend extrapolation, and where each one breaks.

03

Threat models and key scenarios

The concrete stories of how advanced AI goes wrong, and what each scenario implies about which interventions matter.

04

The strategic landscape

Labs, governments, and the incentives driving them. What the major actors' plans actually say when you read them closely.

05

Building your own model

Assemble the pieces into an explicit, structured model of how you expect the future to go, one you can defend, update, and act on.

06

Shaping the future

From model to leverage: where the trajectory is still open, and how your skills and situation map onto the points where pushing matters.

INCLUDED · FOR A LIMITED TIME

A 1-on-1 call with someone working on AI safety full-time

Bring your situation, your doubts, and your half-formed plans. You'll leave with a concrete next step that fits your skills.

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You could read the list alone.

Here's what taking the course changes.

ALONETHIS COURSE
Finish the reading listMaybeBy design
Test your models against othersEvery session
Someone to ask the dumb questionsLens Coach
A plan for what to do next1-on-1 call
Proof you did itCertificate

Common questions

Is it really free?+

Yes. We're a nonprofit built to help people understand the risks of AI and decide how to respond. There's no paid tier and no upsell. The course, the coaching call, and the certificate are all free.

How much time does it take?+

About 5 hours per unit: around three hours of self-study spread out however you like (readings, Lens Coach, a short exercise), plus one 90-minute group session. Fair warning, nerd-sniping hazard: the optional readings are good, so budget more if you're susceptible.

Intensive or part-time: which should I pick?+

Intensive packs all six units into one full-time week, Monday to Friday, so expect a full working day of focus each day. It suits full immersion: between jobs, on a break, or when you don't want to wait. Part-time is a unit a week for six weeks and fits around work and life. Same readings, same discussions, same coaching either way.

Do I need to have taken AI Risk Fundamentals?+

It's not required, but this is an advanced course: it assumes you're already convinced the topic matters and want to go deeper. If you're new to AI risk, Fundamentals is the better starting point. In this course we argue about how the future goes, not about whether the risk is real.

What materials do I need?+

Nothing to buy. The course is built on Redwood Research's AI futurism reading list, with our own edits and added perspectives from other researchers, clearly flagged. Every reading is provided online.

What if I can't make one of my sessions?+

Life happens. Message Lens Coach and you can swap into another group's session for that unit, or reschedule. We'll help you find a time that works.

What happens after the course?+

You keep your peer network and the community Discord, Lens Coach stays available, and if you want to keep going, our Compute Verification course (starting about two weeks later) or a project of your own are natural next steps.

Not sure it’s for you? Come to the first session. If it’s not the right fit, we’ll help you find something that is.

Forecasting, Modeling, and Shaping AI Futures

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